KNOW WHEN YOU’RE OUTDRAWN Normally after the flop, if you are fairly sure you are unlikely to win, you should of course fold. However there is a quick calculation you should always make at this stage in any game of Limit Hold’em. Suppose you have Eight-Eight and you raise pre-flop and produce two callers. The flop delivers King-Queen-Five. You bet and get raised. You call drawing to that possible third Eight or maybe hoping your opponent checks behind with his own draw. If the turn sends out a Ten and your opponent bets I’d get out of there with no regrets. Why? Simple calculation based on the community cards. He has likely been raising with Jack-Ace. He might have Tens. He might have Kings or Queens. Either way, unless he’s on a total bluff, your Eights are unlikely to be worth the risk of a drowning in the river. Always figure the odds and don’t go with that, “But I might land the third Eight on the last street and become a poker God!” It’s more likely you’ll be facing two cards with Royal blood.
DRAWING THE LINE While we’re on the subject of drawing to premium hands, here’s another thing relative newcomers to poker need to keep any eye on. Let’s say the community cards are showing Eight-Five-Three of Spades and you are holding Jack and Ten of Spades but it’s a multi-way pot with six players left in. As a new player you might likely be thinking, “I’ve got this sewn up with my flush!” Almost certainly wrong. With six other players left in and with two cards (the turn and the river) to come the chances are much more than likely someone is going to produce a higher Spade flush than you. Think about it. Anyone holding the Ace or the King or the Queen of Spades only has to catch one other Spade from the remaining cards, assuming he or she doesn’t already have another Spade as a kicker. This will be an easier hand to play from late position as you will be able to judge the level of commitment by what the remaining players bet. It seems crazy to fold a made flush but if the betting was powerful under the above circumstances, I’d fold.
DRAWING ON SIMPLE ODDS Let’s actually calculate some simple pot odds. You’re holding Five Clubs-Six Hearts in the big blind in a three-way un-raised pot. The flop is King of Diamonds-Seven of Clubs-Eight pf Spades. Everyone checks. The turn adds the Queen of Diamonds to the mix. You repeat your check but the first player bets and the second player raises. How do you respond? You do some very quick maths. There are only eight cards out there that can help you and there are thirty eight that can nail the lid down on you. Your odds are therefore a little under five to one of you making your straight. If you figure the likely bets to come from your opponents will deliver you pot odds of better than five to one, the hand is a goer. If not. It’s a fold.
